Ponzi Scheme?

[Chuchnit]

So the other day I was sitting around mainly thinking about the pathetic financial situation of the US federal government. Then it hit me, most of our federal budget is nothing more than a giant ponzi scheme. The overwhelming majority of our federal budget is entitlement programs; social security, medicare, medicaid, s-chip, etc.

So what is a ponzi scheme? Well in basic terms it works like this. I tell all OCA hwbot members that if they give me money I promise a good return through investment. The trick is that I'm not going to invest any of their money. I'm gonna spend it. Since I'm so successful ;), I open up the offer to all OCA members and eventually all forums. In reality I am needing the new investors to come in with their money to pay the "profits" to the OCA hwbot members. For this to work I need new investors in perpetuity.

Ok so I made the bold statement that our government is running a giant ponzi scheme. So lets look at Social Security first. Its the one that most people feel that they "own" a part of and probably the most popular entitlement of all. In the 1930's that wonderful president Franklin Roosevelt :thumbdown: came up with this grand thing called "Social Security". It was the saving grace for the older people during the great depression. There is a huge arguement that that rat bastard prolonged the depression with his shit policies, but that's for another day. So how it started was on the wrong foot but here ya go.

When the program was first started you could opt in or out of paying the tax. Obviously the latter option meant you weren't entitled to benefits later. So it already started out bad. From day one taxes payed in went to elderly people who never payed into the system. Now how it was sold was that they would just "save" the money for you and pay you when you were old. Eventually this didn't work so the wonderful people in DC took the opt out option away and made everyone pay into the system. I think this was under Lyndon B. Johnson. Of course that lame ass created Medicare/Medicaid and expanded social security to offer SS/I benefits. Every generation since the programs inception it has taken more and more workers to pay for each individual recieving benefits today. To throw salt in the wounds, our wonderfully wise leaders also use the funds for the program, which is supposed to be "under lock and key", to lend money to themselves via US gov't bond purchases. Another of the classy moves they make is to just flat out stick their hand in the cookie jar.

Ok so where are we today and how can I tie all this rambling together? How crazy am I? I mean there are legit arguements that say I'm off my rocker. One of the most legit arguements that even I rangle with is the largest difference of all. The US gov't. via the constitution is granted power to levy taxes upon the citizens. The people aren't willingly investing the money. I will admit the validity of the arguement on the surface, but when you break it down to just plain common sense I do believe I am right.

While I don't agree with 90% of these entitlement programs, I honestly think that almost all that voted them in had the greatest intentions for creating something good for the people. In the end power and corruption that is Washington, DC proved that with good intentions or not, people would use it as a piggy bank. I think it was Milton Friedman himself who said that government officials will spend all of the taxe revenues PLUS borrow as much money as they think they can get away with.

So here's where we are today. For generations and accross both spectrums of political parties we have used social security funds to basically cover up deficits and pay for unfunded liabilities. Of course we hear about the projected bankruptcy date but its so far away that it doesn't seem real. Still to this day though they continue to promise our returns will be there for all the taxes we've paid in. The problem is that less and less people (investors) are putting money into the system. Basically they are running out of new investors to pay the old ones. Just a couple ago it was announced that something like 46% of Americans don't pay any taxes into the sytem once they recieve all the credits and tax breaks. Actually most of them recieve more money back than they paid in during the year.

Sadly I think in my lifetime or the lifetime of my daughter Old Glory will fall due to financial reasons. Entitlement programs will be the number one cause. In the end with the current loss of actual paying taxpayers the ponzi scheme will fall. Just like Madoff. I will say that I didn't reference any sources while typing this, but rather its my own thoughts and knowledge I have gathered from sources on both sides of the isle. If you find a mistake in my arguement please correct me. If I sound like a fooking crazy ass, lemme know. I gots the thick skin and love to debate.

[underdog1425]

Madoff turned himself in btw. And most of his (his investors I should say) money was never found. He will be one RICH and dead mofo when he gets out.

But I really like this argument of yours, sure does put things in perspective.

I also like the argument that the past two recessions were supposed to be depressions but we 'fixed' them with dropping interest rates etc. A free market is like an organism, it will do what it needs to, and if it needed to go through a depression and we put bandaids on it to lessen the impact....then a depression is still on the way.

[Kal-EL]

Don't look at me mang, my country was illegally overthrown by the United States, you guys owe me some restitution and I'm not talking a few parcels of land to put up a Tiki torch or two.

Ua Mau Ke Ea O Ka Aina I Ka Pono

[Chuchnit]

Madoff turned himself in btw. And most of his (his investors I should say) money was never found. He will be one RICH and dead mofo when he gets out.

But I really like this argument of yours, sure does put things in perspective.

I also like the argument that the past two recessions were supposed to be depressions but we 'fixed' them with dropping interest rates etc. A free market is like an organism, it will do what it needs to, and if it needed to go through a depression and we put bandaids on it to lessen the impact....then a depression is still on the way.

Ya Madoff really shook the whole system. When his story went public, all investor trust was shaken.

Well look, just like many things in life there are more than one way to skin a cat. I don't necessarily think that John Maynard Keynes was 100% wrong in his theory. Nor do I think supply-siders are wrong. Actually in their own respect they are right. IMO, you can choose either path and end with the same results when fighting with a recession. The question to ask is, what is the cost?

You are right about it being an organism. The economy, no matter what country, is like water. It will always find its level on its own. Sure it may slosh around a little but it will ALWAYS equalize. I personally think in the US that the Federal Reserve and actions of the US government do more harm than good. They create higher peaks and lower valleys. They increase the frequency in which we enter recessions. What you have is man trying to manipulate something bigger than their mind can comprehend. They tend to forget about the invisible hand that Adam Smith first spoke about in the 1700's and our fore-father's understood. You can't truly manipulate the market in the long run. The market will end up manipulating you.

Don't look at me mang, my country was illegally overthrown by the United States, you guys owe me some restitution and I'm not talking a few parcels of land to put up a Tiki torch or two.

Ua Mau Ke Ea O Ka Aina I Ka Pono

Damn island people. :P You can have California ;)

[FACE]

Kal, might I interest you in some shiny beads and trinkets in exchange for your fine real estate? :taunt:

Dammit, Chuck... I have been trying so hard not to think about this crap....

*punches random liberal in the face* (they're easy to spot ;) )

[Chuchnit]

Kal, might I interest you in some shiny beads and trinkets in exchange for your fine real estate? :taunt:

Dammit, Chuck... I have been trying so hard not to think about this crap....

*punches random liberal in the face* (they're easy to spot ;) )

lmao don't go punching progressives in the face FACE. So where am I wrong? I know my theory isn't perfect. Plus I'm at work so I can't keep a train of thought long enough to type a coherent idea. Alway getting interupted by the damn phone. :morpheus:

[FACE]

Well, I honestly believe that the way things are done are at eol phaase right now.. But, I don't think America will fall in same way Rome or any other empire did... The small timers, those directly affected by entitlement programs, will be hit the hardest, as those system will have to come to an abrupt end. the core engine of America will stay intact, since it is the best one to be built ever..... just like a snake every other season, this country will have to shed the old, crusty socialist entitlement skin off and start anew...

there will be no need for a revolution, no need for new regulation... the way it is designed to run now is unsustainable, and will end itself, leaving us right where we started... where hard work and common sense actually pay off, and those who do nothing get nothing.

[HITandRUN]

Nothing will fall since we are too good in making new debt and print more money! :ohcrap:

[Chuchnit]

Well, I honestly believe that the way things are done are at eol phaase right now.. But, I don't think America will fall in same way Rome or any other empire did... The small timers, those directly affected by entitlement programs, will be hit the hardest, as those system will have to come to an abrupt end. the core engine of America will stay intact, since it is the best one to be built ever..... just like a snake every other season, this country will have to shed the old, crusty socialist entitlement skin off and start anew...

there will be no need for a revolution, no need for new regulation... the way it is designed to run now is unsustainable, and will end itself, leaving us right where we started... where hard work and common sense actually pay off, and those who do nothing get nothing.

Well if the countries government fails it will be the people living setting up the new system. The problem is those are usually the worst ones. Hitler ring a bell? He was a "savior" for Germany when he first came to power. Hitler is an extreme example and I know that, but people of that character are the ones who try to seize the opportunity for power when the time comes. Look at history excluding the American and French Revolutions. The real hope is for us to start fresh from day one with the ORIGINAL Constitution!! Fill in the blanks as the needs arise with common sense and practical experience.

What you forget about things is the social unrest that ensues after such a thing happens. Country can't borrow any more money. They can't print anymore because its worthless. Hell your meal changes prices before you finish eating. Financial collapse doesn't mean that factories just shut down and there is no more activity in the country. It means that the currency and debt becomes so bad that people suffer. Suffering causes despair. With despair you have social unrest; aka riots.

Nothing will fall since we are too good in making new debt and print more money! :ohcrap:

Sir, that too can come to an abrupt halt!! Printing money comes after the failure of issuing more debt though.

[MaadDaawg]

When Social Security was started, it was guaranteed that no one would ever pay more than $78 a year into the system.. gone kinda screwy I guess.

I used to think that all the progressive governments that have blessed us with all this entitlement bullshit, like ObamaCare, were sincere. But I got to tell you, watch the Glen Beck show a few times and you'll start thinking differently. He ties it all together with tons of historical data. The "progressives" have been taking us toward socialism since before FDR. they are following a game gook written by Walter Lipman (ya gotta be old to remember him) and they are right on target. The depression that is coming is planned - it will not be by accident.


So the other day I was sitting around mainly thinking about the pathetic financial situation of the US federal government. Then it hit me, most of our federal budget is nothing more than a giant ponzi scheme. The overwhelming majority of our federal budget is entitlement programs; social security, medicare, medicaid, s-chip, etc.

So what is a ponzi scheme? Well in basic terms it works like this. I tell all OCA hwbot members that if they give me money I promise a good return through investment. The trick is that I'm not going to invest any of their money. I'm gonna spend it. Since I'm so successful ;), I open up the offer to all OCA members and eventually all forums. In reality I am needing the new investors to come in with their money to pay the "profits" to the OCA hwbot members. For this to work I need new investors in perpetuity.

Ok so I made the bold statement that our government is running a giant ponzi scheme. So lets look at Social Security first. Its the one that most people feel that they "own" a part of and probably the most popular entitlement of all. In the 1930's that wonderful president Franklin Roosevelt :thumbdown: came up with this grand thing called "Social Security". It was the saving grace for the older people during the great depression. There is a huge arguement that that rat bastard prolonged the depression with his shit policies, but that's for another day. So how it started was on the wrong foot but here ya go.

When the program was first started you could opt in or out of paying the tax. Obviously the latter option meant you weren't entitled to benefits later. So it already started out bad. From day one taxes payed in went to elderly people who never payed into the system. Now how it was sold was that they would just "save" the money for you and pay you when you were old. Eventually this didn't work so the wonderful people in DC took the opt out option away and made everyone pay into the system. I think this was under Lyndon B. Johnson. Of course that lame ass created Medicare/Medicaid and expanded social security to offer SS/I benefits. Every generation since the programs inception it has taken more and more workers to pay for each individual recieving benefits today. To throw salt in the wounds, our wonderfully wise leaders also use the funds for the program, which is supposed to be "under lock and key", to lend money to themselves via US gov't bond purchases. Another of the classy moves they make is to just flat out stick their hand in the cookie jar.

Ok so where are we today and how can I tie all this rambling together? How crazy am I? I mean there are legit arguements that say I'm off my rocker. One of the most legit arguements that even I rangle with is the largest difference of all. The US gov't. via the constitution is granted power to levy taxes upon the citizens. The people aren't willingly investing the money. I will admit the validity of the arguement on the surface, but when you break it down to just plain common sense I do believe I am right.

While I don't agree with 90% of these entitlement programs, I honestly think that almost all that voted them in had the greatest intentions for creating something good for the people. In the end power and corruption that is Washington, DC proved that with good intentions or not, people would use it as a piggy bank. I think it was Milton Friedman himself who said that government officials will spend all of the taxe revenues PLUS borrow as much money as they think they can get away with.

So here's where we are today. For generations and accross both spectrums of political parties we have used social security funds to basically cover up deficits and pay for unfunded liabilities. Of course we hear about the projected bankruptcy date but its so far away that it doesn't seem real. Still to this day though they continue to promise our returns will be there for all the taxes we've paid in. The problem is that less and less people (investors) are putting money into the system. Basically they are running out of new investors to pay the old ones. Just a couple ago it was announced that something like 46% of Americans don't pay any taxes into the sytem once they recieve all the credits and tax breaks. Actually most of them recieve more money back than they paid in during the year.

Sadly I think in my lifetime or the lifetime of my daughter Old Glory will fall due to financial reasons. Entitlement programs will be the number one cause. In the end with the current loss of actual paying taxpayers the ponzi scheme will fall. Just like Madoff. I will say that I didn't reference any sources while typing this, but rather its my own thoughts and knowledge I have gathered from sources on both sides of the isle. If you find a mistake in my arguement please correct me. If I sound like a fooking crazy ass, lemme know. I gots the thick skin and love to debate.

[HITandRUN]

Well if the countries government fails it will be the people living setting up the new system. The problem is those are usually the worst ones. Hitler ring a bell? He was a "savior" for Germany when he first came to power. Hitler is an extreme example and I know that, but people of that character are the ones who try to seize the opportunity for power when the time comes. Look at history excluding the American and French Revolutions. The real hope is for us to start fresh from day one with the ORIGINAL Constitution!! Fill in the blanks as the needs arise with common sense and practical experience.

What you forget about things is the social unrest that ensues after such a thing happens. Country can't borrow any more money. They can't print anymore because its worthless. Hell your meal changes prices before you finish eating. Financial collapse doesn't mean that factories just shut down and there is no more activity in the country. It means that the currency and debt becomes so bad that people suffer. Suffering causes despair. With despair you have social unrest; aka riots.



Sir, that too can come to an abrupt halt!! Printing money comes after the failure of issuing more debt though.

I don't know if the HITLER thing would work these days again! I mean peeps are way more educated these days and I don't think they would go for some propaganda jeez like back in the day but again I might be wrong looking at the noobs I work with which nearly believe anything the tube spits out! :D

[underdog1425]

I don't know if the HITLER thing would work these days again! I mean peeps are way more educated these days and I don't think they would go for some propaganda jeez like back in the day but again I might be wrong looking at the noobs I work with which nearly believe anything the tube spits out! :D

Same wolf, different sheep. It can still happen. People will listen to whoever shouts the loudest, even if it doesn't seem right at first. Once they're listening, he's already won.

I agree about the economy being like water and gov action doing more harm than good.

[Kal-EL]

In this day and age, there is only one thing that could create the devotion held by that evil fag, religion. The terrorist use it all the time to get regular people to do horrific things.

Combine a depression with a powerful religious speaker and you have yourself an army willing to anything.

[Chuchnit]

When Social Security was started, it was guaranteed that no one would ever pay more than $78 a year into the system.. gone kinda screwy I guess.

I used to think that all the progressive governments that have blessed us with all this entitlement bullshit, like ObamaCare, were sincere. But I got to tell you, watch the Glen Beck show a few times and you'll start thinking differently. He ties it all together with tons of historical data. The "progressives" have been taking us toward socialism since before FDR. they are following a game gook written by Walter Lipman (ya gotta be old to remember him) and they are right on target. The depression that is coming is planned - it will not be by accident.

lmao, I watch Glenn when I get home in time which is hardly ever. I like him and dislike him at the same time. Really I wish he would just change his tone a great deal because that's what makes him look like a loon. Just as anyone from the other side of the isle, I am skeptical of anything he says. It's kinda hard to be skeptical when he has someone on audio, video, or their written words. ;) To be honest with you I didn't bring any of his stuff into the conversation because he is a polarizing figure in America. Granted the progressives can't dispute anything about him on merit. They don't want to address it. They only go for personal attacks and dismiss him as crazy.

There is a very large faction of elite progressives in this country that believe exactly what you say. No doubt because they've said it themselves. That doesn't mean that in *some* of the people's heads who voted for those measure hadn't convinced themselves they were being sincere.

I don't know if the HITLER thing would work these days again! I mean peeps are way more educated these days and I don't think they would go for some propaganda jeez like back in the day but again I might be wrong looking at the noobs I work with which nearly believe anything the tube spits out! :D

Well maybe Hitler was a shitty example. What I was trying to get across is in that situation, the really left wing crazies come out and offer the fix to all problems. That always entails some form of government that follows Karl Marx or worse; pure dictatorship. Obviously both lead to the same place. One just goes ahead and starts you there.

Really though read below. It can happen again. You get people poor, hungry and scared, who knows what they can be convinced of.

Same wolf, different sheep. It can still happen. People will listen to whoever shouts the loudest, even if it doesn't seem right at first. Once they're listening, he's already won.

I agree about the economy being like water and gov action doing more harm than good.

In this day and age, there is only one thing that could create the devotion held by that evil fag, religion. The terrorist use it all the time to get regular people to do horrific things.

Combine a depression with a powerful religious speaker and you have yourself an army willing to anything.

Good points gents. :good:

[FACE]

well, I for one am not worried... One thing I know for sure we will not be force fed:

[Neuromancer]

LMAO FACE.

History is written by the victors. Hitler was loved and feared and hated all at the same time. Many compared Bush to that (and the sacrifice of civil liberties he instituted behind closed doors and SO FAST it made your head spin is a good pointer in that direction)

Everyone thinks it can not happen but it does and with reat frequency and success in most comfortable societies.

[Neuromancer]

Want to point this out first that I am way buzzed...

The star trek or utopian society we all want to see for our future is not attainable. We are human. There may be politics involved (left right I dont give a big shit) I am libertarian so you all suck to me.


6.5 billion people. With out a world war this planet will not survice. Like Hitler was samrt enough to start... start killing people. The Jews were an excuse. IT easy historically they ruin civilizations. Uh who doesn't? in modern society. I think we can be more customized than that though. Lets start with the poor.. lets give them money for a while. then yank it.

All cities will go into chaos.

Riots will happen and yeah some good people will die... but mainly we can send out storm troopers in to just wipe people out. Thats not enough...

Not like its new to the USA. Hell this country was founded on killing people that disagreed with us (as all countries were). IT started with the injuns... is WACO, Ruby Hill or any other of a hundred things different?

The whole Hitler cant happen now thing dopes not fly with me. Corps got smarter and so did govy. WAY smarter. So 'hitler' is alive and well today...

People say we moved from a manufacturing country to a service based industry and it is the next evolution

Only works if the rest of the world needs it.

Consumer only is not a dirty word if you do not understand what that word means. Consumer = you use more than you create. IF it was vica versa it would be a manufacturer. Something the US was until a few decades ago. This country is going to go down. We will become England. Not gone... just nothing important. Only reason they have clout is they tied themselves to us. LOL Irony? We kill them twice?

Sorry homew=y I dont get your whole Ponzi thing. I am sure it is smart and thought out but is a tree in the forest. You are missing the big picture by focusing on hte details.. Like this whole argument.

Hitler is alive and well. He just changed how he acts. And I ain't saying that is a bad thing. 6.5 billion is too many people. WE evolved too quick over the last 200 years.. Like a virus and like all viruses it need to be cleaned. Whether we do it too each other or nature does it...

200 million I think is the perfect global environment on our tech level.;
Of course that means every one produces and consumes...they would be... oh yeah... equal. I dont care sex, race,religion lets just kill 6.3 billion people. WWIII is a good thing and coming soon. Not utopian. You need poor you need rich you need differences.

EDIT: Only reason I focused on Hitler is cuz people said it could not happen in a modern society... huh that was what 70-80 years ago.. in the span of human lifetime it is not far.. and the same shit is going on all over the world right now so how could it not happen now? Cuz fox news or CNN does not cover it?

Don't be sheeple.

I could totally start a like minded people organization and lead it too whatever I want... why would I? Who wants like minded people? Its like all those "minorities" wanting to start gangs.. I mean organizations...

EDIT EDIT:

Talked to my religious family yesterday.

Very funny that the principle of Christianity is... DIE before fighting back. Our govy is founded on it. If an intruder kills you he gets punished, if he does not kill you he does not get caught. If you kill an intruder you go to jail for murder.

But like most Americans they are pissed, at everything. How can you not be> Have you watched an entertainment channel lately? (By entertainment I mean fox/cnn any of those crap get public viewers cahnnels...

You know what is a good news channel? CSPAN

It is a live by minute report of the stupidity of Washington... do I watch it? Hell no. I would rather watch Fox.CNN I love action movies AND fiction.

I will focus on sports... it is a fluke that the patriots won the superbowl after 9/11

[Chuchnit]

lol Rich. I think you are trying to make a good argument, but I can't follow your drunken writing enough to really respond. When you sober up try and make it a little more coherent and we'll debate it. :) Oh and I got some more points to make to show the similarities and lack of on a traditional ponzi vs. my claim. I just gotta get to where I have time to type it out.

[FACE]

^^ did somebody say "Fonzie"?

[Neuromancer]

lol Rich. I think you are trying to make a good argument, but I can't follow your drunken writing enough to really respond. When you sober up try and make it a little more coherent and we'll debate it. :) Oh and I got some more points to make to show the similarities and lack of on a traditional ponzi vs. my claim. I just gotta get to where I have time to type it out.

K I will bullet point it for yah :)


1) War is the answer. The population of the world has increased 50% in my short time on this planet. This growth rate is not sustainable. With advances in medicine and safety features in factories and motor vehicles... The only thing that will kill enough of us off... is us.

2) By making the poor dependent on welfare etc, when that source of income dries up since they a have been so accustomed to it for so long... (combined with an increasing aggressive and unlawful media representations) when it does collapse we will have wars in our cities.

3) Someone earlier said Hitler can't happen today because we are smarter and more aware. Except that is exactly not true and I say the Internet makes us dumber and more easily manipulated. Hitler rose to power only 70-80 years ago? That is not exactly the dark ages. We have not changed much and things are going on all the time that most people are oblivious too.

4) Moving from a production based to a service based society was the next progression. A manufacturing society is successful only as long as someone is there to buy it. Competition from 3rd world countries means our overpriced goods would sit on the docks waiting for a buyer. Instead of selling cars for $25,000 a pop that cost 10-15 grand to build. We will design and sell the plans to build that car (or the factory that makes them) for millions. That is a good thing... (IE All societies are consumer based unless they are 1st stage... Agrarian)

5) I don't understand the Ponzi thing nor global economics. I thought you were getting hung up on something that was clever but ultimately what all govts do. I could be wrong here. Trivializing what our government is doing by comparing it to con artistry is clever but not useful.

6) TV sucks in general for reporting anything even close to news. The only thing that does actual report NEWS. Is CSPAN. Because there is no commentary. they setup a camera in the house or the senate and just let it roll. Agenda is left to the participants not the presenters.

The rest was just repetitive crap :) Kept harping on the Hitler thing... cuz it can and is happening.

[Splave]

http://i.imgur.com/Cae9F.jpg

[Patch]

Thanks Splave. This thread needed that.

Bah. Government, war, famine, overpopulation, environment......we'll be culled, but humanity will survive. No need for us to active

As a species, the only absolute and inevitable threat to our existence will be from an asteroid or our own yellow star (cue Kal and Jor).

You want to talk about long term species survival? Then write your congressfolk to ramp up NASA funding and stop piddling around with global warming and social programs. Or better yet, start sending money to Virgin Galactic - cause private galactic travel is truly what will take us elsewhere.

[underdog1425]

Thanks Splave. This thread needed that.

Bah. Government, war, famine, overpopulation, environment......we'll be culled, but humanity will survive. No need for us to active

As a species, the only absolute and inevitable threat to our existence will be from an asteroid or our own yellow star (cue Kal and Jor).

You want to talk about long term species survival? Then write your congressfolk to ramp up NASA funding and stop piddling around with global warming and social programs. Or better yet, start sending money to Virgin Galactic - cause private galactic travel is truly what will take us elsewhere.

THIS!!!!

[Russianhaxor]

I laugh. This is all insignificant banter by a few individuals, in the end. Things will always return to the horrible way that they are because the same types of people continue to come to power and maintain the status quo. The simple fact is that people who are rich make up more of the overall income earned today than they did in 1930. So much so, that its almost increased by a factor of 10.

We need to reform the way wealth is distributed prior to doing anything else, because this is an unsustainable system. We're getting recessions every 10 years. That's not normal. We're going into debt that is literally unpayable, that's not normal. We're going to war in place that have no significance to us, that's not normal.

We need to re-evaluate the way we let our country be run. And I'm not talking about these whack ass tea parties or any political party, they all have some sort of an end game. Fuck them all.

Give me ultimate power and I promise to fix this once and for all. Then I will step down and fix this democracy for once. (hehehe get who I am?).